Hello MarketShalians, Welcome to the Weekly Indian and World Market Wrap Blog. Another week has ended, whatever you say but one thing is that if anyone is directly or indirectly associated with capital markets and has interest in it then you do not need any other entertainment. Your monetary interest itself becomes your entertainment. And if this is your main course of business then believe me you are one of the lucky people whose passion has become his business and entertainment both. Now let’s talk about the market too. The condition of Indian markets is no different. As usual traders, especially intraday traders, have made money by taking advantage of volatility but investors still have to bear the pain. Although Reserve Bank of India’s efforts to increase liquidity has definitely infused some strength in Indian markets in the last 2-3 days but the destination is still far away. The work of writing the future of the coming days or a few months will be done by the India Annual Budget which is going to take place 01.02.2025. The market has a lot of hopes; how well Nirmala Sitaraman ji finds an answer to those hopes!
If we look at the other side, amid Trump’s threats and challenges, the world’s markets are seen becoming highly volatile. As expected the Federal Bank did not change the interest rates this time and the markets also expressed displeasure and gave a one day reaction on it, have again come on their path. But this time a big blow has been given by China which has hit the US Tech companies with a big force. The China based AI named DeepSeek has put the US Tech companies in trouble and has created a better and low cost option in the AI ecosystem. Now it remains to be seen how these US Tech companies ruling the world are going to face this storm named DeepSeek. The coming time will answer this as well. Let’s do the deep dive into the past week market happenings and try to predict the price and action and probability of the markets and different asset classes for the coming week.
Table of Contents
US Markets
If we talk about the overall world market, then in majority of the markets worldwide a good strength is being seen on the weekly charts. But it is not possible to neglect the volatile impact is be generated by Donald Trump. If you look at the trade of the US market on the last day of the week, you will find it a bit disappointing and there is only one person behind it and that is Donald Trump who has created a stir in the market with his tariff threats. This time he disappointed the Friday markets due to his intentions of putting tariffs on China and Canada. Dow Jones had went near to its lifetime highs in an excellent manner and was in full preparation to breakout but on the last day of the week selling pressure was seen near the lifetime highs and Dow Jones was seen reducing its weekly gains. If we talk about the US broad market then the picture is a bit different. Both NASDAQ and S&P500 indices showed weakness above the weekly charts. The comparatively better performance of Dow Jones indicates that investors in the US markets are showing inclination towards old economy stocks. Technology sector was also performing well in the US but this week China-backed DeepSeek AI has given a big blow to the US tech companies which are working towards their recovery but how much fight the US tech companies will be able to give to this new challenge is hidden in the garden of future.
Dow Jones Outlook and Trade Probability
Meanwhile if we look at the positioning of Dowjones on the weekly chart, it is looking strong as we had assumed last week. US market followed the uptrend and succeeded in closing at 44544 with a gain of 120 points. Talking about the next week, the bull trend of DowJones is intact. It is facing selling pressure near its lifetime highs. To register new gains in DowJones, it needs to close the day above 44962 once. Due to the current positioning in the middle of trend band, chances of DowJones moving in both directions are visible in the coming week. Bias should be kept on the positive side.
Respective Resistance and Support Levels are as follows:
Support – 43328, 42985, 41868
Resistance – 44962, 47395
Sentiment – Strong
Trend – Up
India Market
Nifty Outlook and Trade Probability
After witnessing a fall of 13% from its peak, Indian markets showed great gains this week. Today was the day of the annual budget and a very satisfying budget was presented by India’s Finance Minister Smt. Nirmala Sitaraman. In this budget, she focused on increasing consumption and to save money in the hands of the middle class, income of salaried people up to Rs. 12 lakh was declared tax free. To give a boost to the economy, other important announcements were also made in this budget. Now the market is looking at the RBI policy which is going to come in the next weak, where a reduction in interest rates is being expected to a considerable extent; if this happens then it will definitely prove to be a powerful booster dose for the equity markets.
Now let us talk about what Nifty-Future is showing on the weekly charts and what strategy will we adopt to trade it. This week Nifty closed at 23560 with a gain of 1.93%. Fortunately the down trend is still intact but due to a good budget the sentiment is positive. The current levels of Nifty are trading exactly near the downward trend line resistance. We are looking to trade Nifty on both sides with a cautious approach. If Nifty succeeds in breaching 23614 and closing the day above it, our trading bias will switch to the long side from both sides.
Respective levels are as follows:
Support – 23495, 22980, 22807
Resistance – 23614, 23709, 23969
Sentiment – Positive
Trend – Down
BankNifty Outlook and Trade Probability
Bank Nifty also traded with strength this week and gave a weekly close at 49774 levels with gains of 2.85%. The trend on the weekly charts of Bank Nifty-Future is still down but today’s annual budget event and upcoming RBI policy have kept the sentiment positive due to which BankNifty showed a good gain this week. As a trader our priority is to respect price and action so for next week we will go with the flow and will find opportunities to trade on both sides at the levels given below.
Respective levels are as follows:
Support – 47988, 47706, 46184
Resistance – 50288-422, 50698, 51286
Sentiment – Positive
Trend – Down
Stock of the week (Long/Short)
Long Side Trade
This week we haven’t got any Long Side Stock Trade idea into our setup and as we always say when your setup is not giving you trade better you stay away from taking trade. Because not taking trade is also equivalent to take trade in the trading business.
Short Side Trade
This week PNB is coming in our setup where we will initiate the SHORT side trade. Levels and Chart image is from the cash levels and it needs to be converted into the future levels.
Sell at the CMP/99.00, Stop Loss at 102.64, Target at 92.00 with a Risk Reward Ratio of 1:2.
Alternative Investments
Gold Outlook and Trade Probability
The Bull Run in gold is intact and as per the prediction gold registered gains this week as well. Gold registered a sharp rise of 0.99% in dollar terms and after making a new lifetime high of $2817 it closed at $2797.
Talking about the probabilities of Gold trade next week, we have to trade gold with a bullish sentiment for the next week. Whenever the price of gold comes near the below given levels, we will look for opportunities to trade it on the long side only. We will continue to carry the existing long positions with a proper stop losses backed with the right risk and reward ratio.
Respective Resistance and Support Levels are as follows:
Support – $2748, $2674, $2650
Resistance – $2817, $2882, $2926
Sentiment – Positive
Trend – Up
Silver Outlook and Trade Probability
Silver also showed a good gain of 2.55% this week and closed at $31.29. Proving last week analysis correct, Silver showed this up-move while taking support from $29.65.
Now let’s talk about what next? Next week also we are seeing indications of a positive momentum in Silver. Silver is seen moving ahead to touch its lifetime highs. In the next week our trading strategy will remain on the long side.
Respective Resistance and Support Levels are as follows:
Support – $30.37, $29.74, $29.65, $29.20
Resistance – $31.76, $33.79, $34.87, $35.20
Sentiment – Positive
Trend –Up
Crude Oil (WTI) Outlook and Trade Probability
Crude Oil (WTI) showed weakness as predicted. Last week it closed with a loss of -1.04% at $73.75. After touching the lows of $72.94, Crude closed above its down slope support level of $73.43 (Refer Last Week Analysis). Our trading strategy for the next week will be on both sides where we will look for opportunities to trade crude on both sides at the below mentioned levels. But with a cautious approach and that is if Crude closes the day below $72.94 then our trading bias will switch to the short side.
Respective Resistance and Support Levels are as follows:
Support – $72.94, $71.99, $66.47
Resistance – $74, $75.10, $80.78
Sentiment – Weak
Trend – Neutral
Bitcoin Outlook and Trade Probability
Bitcoin has shown a neutral approach this week. While we are writing this blog, the weekly chart shows Bitcoin trading at $101984 with a weekly drop of -0.57%. Bitcoin is not ready to give up its strength. As Bitcoin approaches lower levels, you can immediately see a recovery in it which takes it near to its lifetime levels. We do not intend to do short term trade in Bitcoin but always adopt a strategy of accumulating it near support levels. Hence we can generate a best cost price through a good Dollar/ INR Averaging.
Our strategy for the coming week will remain the same where we will accumulate Bitcoin near the below mentioned support levels.
Respective Resistance and Support Levels are as follows:
Support – $97965, $93650, $88943
Resistance – $104454, $106474, $109356
Sentiment – Neutral
Trend – Up
Conclusion and disclaimer
The content on MarkShala.com is intended for educational and informational purposes only. We specialize in writing blogs on financial planning, investment strategies, economic trends, and related topics. While we strive to provide accurate and reliable information, the content should not be taken as professional financial, investment, or legal advice.
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