Hello MarketShalians, Welcome to the Weekly Stock Market Wrap at MarketShala. Stock markets around the world are still in pain. If there is one thing, it is precious metals i.e. Gold and Silver. Both these asset classes seem to be doing great, rest everything is in pain. You all know the reason and that is the ongoing worldwide tariff war which is being born in the U.S., although that is also not being benefited by it. The U.S. markets are also going through a period of massive fall. On the last day of the week when the Indian markets were celebrating the Holi festival holiday, the rest of the markets across the world were seen recovering a little from the weakness of the entire week, but I do not believe that this is a sign of any reversal. If you look at the price and action of Nifty500, you will find that a bearish cross over situation has formed, which is indicating that still more pain is left in the Mid and small cap shares in the Indian markets. So I believe that in the coming times there will be pain in the markets, now it is up to you whether you ignore it and move ahead or be sad but you will have to pass this phase. Indian economy is showing signs of positive reversal which is expected to start showing its impact in the next two-three quarters. This week Indian market has experienced a sudden shock as the Indusind Bank (Nifty50 index stock) where due to some financial irregularities the stocks saw a fall of 28%. In the midst of all this turmoil the Chinese markets are seen performing well. U.S. There is also a party who does not like much the work done by Donald Trump and Elon Musk duo and is trying to target Elon Musk’s Tesla business. Meanwhile Donald Trump also made a symbolic display by buying a Tesla car to support Elon Musk and protect his business.
So this was the general action of this week which happened worldwide. Now let us look at the trading probabilities of next week on the basis of technical chart analysis.
Table of Contents
US Stock Market and Dowjones Trade Probabilities
Dowjones recorded a fall of -3.07% this week. There is a saying in India that the one who opens a donkey for others ends up falling in the same hole himself. The same is being seen with the US markets. The US, which is leading the whole world towards recession and inflation, is also not able to remain unaffected by it.
The weekly chart of Dowjones is worth watching as it has broken its recent low and closed below it, which is a bearish signal that can generate selling pressure in Dowjones for the next week as well.
Dowjones should be seen trading with bearish bias next week. Whenever there is a resistance formation near the below mentioned levels, it should be seen to be shorted.
Respective Resistance and Support Levels are as follows:
Support – 40672, 40071, 36427
Resistance – 41565, 41889, 42598
Sentiment – Weak
Trend – Weak
Trade Bias – Short (Conditional)
India Stock Market and Trade Probabilities
Nifty Outlook and Trade Probability
Talking about the future index of Nifty50, I believe that despite we were celebrating Holi holiday on the last day of the week which was the day of recovery for the worldwide stock markets, the handover of Nifty50 was a good handover with higher high and higher low formation. However nifty registered a decline of -0.91% on weekly closing basis. If you look at the candles of last three weeks, you will find that is this an indication of another base formation? I said “Another Base Formation” here because it has happened before as well since this down trend channel has formed but after some time the base formation gets broken so we have to see what is going to happen this time. Sentiment is on the neutral side.
Next week’s trading strategy for Nifty50 should be on both sides. One should look for opportunities to trade Nifty50 on both sides whenever opportunity is available near the levels given below.
Respective Resistance and Support Levels are as follows:
Support – 22370, 22280, 22233, 21847
Resistance – 22448, 22604, 22657, 22750
Sentiment – Neutral
Trend – Down
Trade Bias – Both Side (Conditional)
Bank Nifty Outlook and Trade Probability
Bank Nifty Index witnessed a decline of -1.07% this week. Both handover and sentiment are weak. The major reason behind this was the sharp fall in Indusind Bank stock, which worked to pull Bank Nifty downwards and along with it other small and mideum banking shares also fell. However, Bank Nifty is still near its recent lows, so it may take support from here and move ahead or if 47729 level is gets break, even more weakness may be seen in Bank Nifty.
In the coming week, the strategy to trade Bank Nifty on both sides can prove to be effective. Whenever the opportunity arises, one should look for opportunities to trade Bank Nifty on both sides near the levels given below.
Respective Resistance and Support Levels are as follows:
Support – 47729, 47065, 46184
Resistance – 48166, 48305, 48509
Sentiment – Weak
Trend – Bearish
Trade Bias – Both Sides (Conditional)
Stock of the week (Long/Short)
Long Side Trade
This week ISEC is coming in our setup where we will initiate the LONG side trade. Levels and Chart image is from the cash levels and it needs to be converted into the future levels if the position is being made in FnO. If it is not available in FnO then trade will be considered in the spot levels only.
Buy at the CMP / 836.00, Stop Loss at 823.00, Target at 863.00 with a Risk Reward Ratio of 1:2.08
Short Side Trade
This week PATANJALI is coming in our setup where we will initiate the SHORT side trade. Levels and Chart image is from the cash levels and it needs to be converted into the future levels if the position is being made in FnO. If it is not available in FnO then trade will be considered in the spot levels only.
Buy at the CMP / 1718.00, Stop Loss at 1748.00, Target at 1643.00 with a Risk Reward Ratio of 1:2.6
Alternative Investments
Gold Outlook and Trade Probability
At a time when investors across the world are seeing their wealth eroding in other asset classes, their investment in gold is providing protection to their portfolios. This week gold has reached a new peak of $3005 and has reached the new blue sky zone. The sentiment is strong, the trend is bullish and the handover has also been better. This week gold closed with a gain of 2.57%. There is no logic in blindly shorting Gold at its peak. Even if there is a selling or supply pressure at higher levels, the right strategy would be to trade Gold on the long side around the levels given below. Those who already have long side positions should continue with that.
Respective Resistance and Support Levels are as follows:
Support – $2958, $2881, $2854, $2798
Resistance – $2989, $3005
Sentiment – Strong
Trend – Bullish
Trade Bias – Long Side (Conditional)
Silver Outlook and Trade Probability
Silver is now seen moving ahead along with Gold. Although Silver was already having positive momentum, it is now seen trying to match the outperformance of Gold. This week Silver saw a rise of 4.08%. Now its position on the chart has come near to its recent highs. From here the probability for Silver has become strong but another possibility is that since this is also a resistance level, if selling pressure is generated here, then the possibility of a double top formation will increase. Until this happens, taking long side trades in Silver with a trading bias for the next week would be a good strategy.
The strategy for trading Silver next week should be to trade on the long side whenever there is an opportunity near the below mentioned levels.
Respective Resistance and Support Levels are as follows:
Support – $33.79, $33.37, $32.51, $31.86
Resistance – $34.12, $34.87, $35.87
Sentiment – Strong
Trend – Bullish
Trade Bias – Long Side (Conditional)
Crude Oil (WTI) Outlook and Trade Probability
Crude Oil has seen a neutral close this week. Crude has formed a long tail Dozi candle near its long term support. After a good fall, such a candle formation seems to be trying to give an indication as to whether we will see a price reversal in Crude oil from here? We will answer this question next week. But in the coming week, the Crude trade strategy which we had kept on the short side for the last several weeks and we got a good benefit from it too now needs to be shifted a little. Since we are still falling in a bearish trend, taking a trade with a completely long bias will not be in the favor of risk and reward. Hence, whenever we get an opportunity near the below given levels, we will look for opportunities to trade crude on both sides.
Respective Resistance and Support Levels are as follows:
Support – $66.47, $65.33, $63.53, $61.69
Resistance – $67.96, $68.49, $71.11, $73.35
Sentiment – Neutral
Trend – Bearish
Trade Bias – Both Side (Conditional)
Conclusion and disclaimer
The content on MarkShala.com is intended for educational and informational purposes only. We specialize in writing blogs on financial planning, investment strategies, economic trends, and related topics. While we strive to provide accurate and reliable information, the content should not be taken as professional financial, investment, or legal advice.
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