For Monday, 05 January 2026
An integrated technical and real-world market outlook for both intraday and positional traders
Where the Market Stands Now
The Nifty 50 futures chart continues to exhibit a bullish undertone, with prices holding above key support levels and carving out higher lows. After hitting fresh record highs late last week, the market is consolidating near its upper range rather than reversing sharply. This suggests that market participants are digesting gains and positioning for the next directional move rather than exiting altogether.
From a momentum perspective, both intraday and short-term traders should pay attention to how the index behaves around the 26,300–26,220 support zone and the resistance near 26,600–26,650. These levels are not arbitrary but reflect recent price acceptance and turnover in the futures markets.
Latest Macro-Fundamental Developments Shaping Markets
Before we explore specific trade entries, it’s crucial to understand the current fundamental backdrop that is influencing asset prices across equities, commodities, and safe-haven instruments:
1. Positive Global Market Sentiment
Global equity markets have begun 2026 on a confident tone. Major indices in Europe and Asia, including the FTSE 100 and South Korea’s Kospi, have reached fresh highs, underpinned by optimism around AI-led growth, strong corporate earnings, and expectations of monetary easing by central banks. U.S. equity futures are also trading higher, reflecting sustained confidence despite some geopolitical uncertainties. Reuters+1
2. Record Rally in Precious Metals
Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are extending their strong 2025 performance into the new year. Spot gold has started 2026 with gains after posting its largest annual advance since 1979, supported by expectations of future Fed rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and robust central bank demand. Silver has also surged strongly on the back of industrial demand and supply constraints. Yahoo Finance+1
In India, gold prices opened the year higher, with domestic rates rising by several hundred rupees per 10 grams. Silver has also risen meaningfully on strong global cues. @mathrubhumi+1
This precious-metal strength reflects investor positioning for continued low-rate environments and safe-haven demand, which can feed into equity market psychology — risk assets benefit when global liquidity remains supportive.
3. Strength in Indian Markets into Year Start
Indian markets have not only recovered after the year-end holidays but have also closed at fresh all-time highs in the first week of 2026, led by financials, banking, and PSU contributions. The strong performance was not merely short covering — the gains were sustained through the closing hours, indicating conviction. The Economic Times
The combination of global optimism, macro support, and strong domestic market breadth makes the current phase significant for traders rather than accidental.
Technical Levels and Trading Approach
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Support: 26,300–26,220
- Strong Support (Positional): 26,050
- Immediate Resistance: 26,600
- Extended Resistance: 26,850–26,900
Intraday Strategy (High-Execution Focus)
Bullish Setup
For intraday traders, waiting for confirmation is essential rather than guessing direction. If Nifty futures hold above 26,500–26,520 with supportive volume early in the session, it would signal that buyers are serious. A long position can be initiated with:
- Entry: 26,520
- Target: 26,600 first, then 26,650
- Stop Loss: 26,420
This setup works because sustaining above 26,500 typically means short squeezes are likely and positive macro cues are broadening participation.
Bearish Setup (Counter-Trend)
If Nifty fails to sustain the immediate support and breaks below 26,200–26,180, it shows that short-term buying pressure has waned. In that case:
- Entry below 26,200
- Target: 26,120, then 26,050
- Stop Loss: 26,320
This is a counter-trend trade under normal market conditions and should be used only if the breakdown is confirmed on lower timeframes.
Positional Trading (1–5 Days)
From a short-term swing perspective, the trend remains broadly bullish as long as Nifty futures stay above 26,050 on a daily closing basis. This key level represents a pivot area where prior selloffs were absorbed by buyers.
Positional Long Strategy
- Aggressive Buy Zone: 26,250–26,320
- Targets: 26,650 → 26,850–26,900
- Daily Close Stop Loss: Below 26,050
Trailing your stop as targets are met is a good practice to protect gains and adapt to any sudden shifts in market sentiment — especially important in thin holiday-affected markets.
Caution on Shorts
Short positions should only be considered if there’s a firm daily close below 26,050, which would indicate a potential shift in structure from bullish to corrective.
Practical Trade Execution Tips
- Don’t chase breakouts immediately at the open. Let the market confirm direction on 15-minute or 30-minute charts.
- Look for confirmation on volume. A breakout with weak volume is often a false signal in holiday-thinned markets.
- Manage risk with stops. Futures are leveraged instruments; disciplined stops protect capital.
- Watch related markets. Precious metals strength can sometimes signal a rotation away from equities if macro fears spike. Conversely, broad equity strength can signal risk-on conditions.
Overall Takeaway
In the current environment, markets are responding to both technical strength and positive macro fundamentals. The rally in precious metals, coupled with strong global sentiment and Indian market breadth, supports the idea that risk assets are still in an environment where buying pressure outweighs aggressive selling.
For intraday traders, price action at important levels should drive trades with tight risk parameters. For positional traders, buying dips remains the more favorable strategy while the technical structure holds above significant daily supports.
This is a period where patient execution and a disciplined approach will distinguish profitable traders from impulsive ones. The market is offering opportunities — but only to those who align with both technical levels and broader macro behavior.
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Disclaimer
The views and analysis provided above are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or investment advice. Trading and investing in the stock market involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
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