By Somnath Das | www.markshala.com
The Indian stock market once again proved that it remains one of the most dynamic and unpredictable financial ecosystems in the world. Thursday’s session reflected how swiftly market sentiment can change, driven by a combination of global economic cues, geopolitical developments, sector-specific concerns, and technical factors. Nifty Futures witnessed a sharp gap-down opening and continued to trade under sustained selling pressure throughout the session.
In this detailed market note, we review today’s price action on Nifty, discuss the intraday trading opportunities that emerged, analyze the broader market environment, and outline a well-structured trading framework for the next trading session, Friday, 13 February 2026.
Nifty Futures: Intraday Price Action and Trade Performance
The day began with a weak global handover, which resulted in a noticeable gap-down opening in Nifty Futures. Selling pressure was evident right from the first few minutes, and the market struggled to find meaningful buying interest throughout the session. As a result, Nifty Futures ended the day with a decline of approximately 168 points from the previous close, while the total intraday movement spanned a range of nearly 146 points.
One of the key technical levels for the day was placed near 25,940. This level was closely monitored as a critical support zone. Within the first five minutes of trade, this support was decisively breached, activating a short-side trading opportunity based on technical structure and price behavior. As the session progressed, the index made a brief attempt to retest this level, but selling pressure once again emerged around the same zone. This confirmed the level as a strong intraday resistance.
From this resistance area, Nifty Futures declined by close to 119 points, offering traders multiple opportunities to participate on the short side. Both range-based strategies and momentum-driven setups performed effectively, providing favourable risk-reward opportunities. Even traders who focused purely on momentum trades found two clear windows to initiate short positions during the day.
Overall, the session highlighted the importance of respecting technical levels, maintaining trading discipline, and following price action rather than emotions. In a market environment where volatility remains elevated, structured strategies continue to offer consistency.
Stock of the Day Review: AstraZeneca
AstraZeneca was identified as the Stock of the Day for Thursday. However, the trade was invalidated immediately at the opening bell. The stock opened near the 8,790 level, which coincided with the predefined stop-loss zone. Weak quarterly results led to sharp selling pressure right from the start, resulting in a swift breakdown.
This situation serves as an important reminder that not every identified setup converts into a profitable trade. Following predetermined rules, especially stop-loss placement and trade invalidation criteria, plays a critical role in preserving capital. Avoiding low-probability trades is as significant as capturing high-conviction opportunities.
Understanding Today’s Market Environment
The stock market is a space where surprises are part of everyday trading. Over the last few sessions, global trade tensions showed signs of easing, corporate earnings in India began improving, and the broader market trend hinted at a potential recovery. However, markets once again introduced an unexpected variable: the accelerating influence of Artificial Intelligence.
The rapid advancement of AI-driven automation tools has begun to challenge traditional business models in the global software and IT services industry. Activities that once generated substantial revenue for IT firms are now being executed faster, more efficiently, and at significantly lower costs. This shift has triggered valuation concerns, especially for companies heavily dependent on outsourced software services.
Indian IT companies, which form a major part of global IT service delivery, have come under considerable selling pressure. Since the IT sector holds the second-largest weightage in the Nifty index, weakness in this segment directly affects the overall index movement.
On the daily chart, Nifty Spot closed near 25,807, marking a decline of around 146 points or approximately 0.57 percent. Although the immediate handover remains weak, the broader trend structure still appears positive. The key factor to monitor in the coming sessions will be whether the IT sector stabilizes, as its performance will largely determine the sustainability of any market recovery.
Trading Strategy for Nifty Futures – Friday, 13 February 2026
Based on current price structure, volatility conditions, and technical patterns, the following trading framework has been prepared for the next session. These levels are derived purely from technical analysis and price behavior.
If Nifty Futures opens and sustains between the range of 25,965 and 25,820, a range-trading approach may be considered. In such a scenario, short positions can be evaluated near the upper boundary of 25,965, while long positions may be considered near the lower boundary of 25,820. In both cases, a stop-loss of approximately 50 points and a target of around 100 points can be applied. Only the first triggered trade should be taken to avoid overtrading.
If the price breaks convincingly above 25,965 and sustains, a bullish momentum setup may emerge. In this case, a long trade can be considered with a stop-loss of 50 points and a target of 100 points. Immediate resistance levels on the upside are expected near 26,050 and then around 26,200.
Conversely, if Nifty Futures breaks below 25,820 and shows sustained selling pressure, a bearish momentum trade may be evaluated. Here, too, a 50-point stop-loss and 100-point target can be applied. On the downside, immediate support levels are placed near 25,760 and then close to 25,708.
In case the market opens with a significant gap-up or gap-down outside the defined range, trading should be aligned only in the direction of momentum, and range-based strategies should be avoided for the day.
Importance of Trading Discipline
One of the most critical aspects of consistent trading performance is limiting the number of trades. A disciplined approach suggests restricting daily trades to a maximum of two, ideally a combination of one range trade and one momentum trade. If the first trade itself achieves the intended target, it is advisable to remain on the sidelines for the rest of the day. This helps preserve psychological capital and prevents emotional decision-making.
Stock of the Day for Friday: Trade Avoid
Within the Nifty 500 universe, no stock currently presents a convincing technical structure suitable for a high-probability long trade. Hence, it is prudent to avoid identifying a Stock of the Day for Friday. Staying out of low-conviction trades is also a strategic decision and often protects traders from unnecessary losses.
Global and Geopolitical Developments: Last 24 Hours
Global economic and political developments continue to influence market sentiment. In the last 24 hours, several events have drawn the attention of global investors.
The United States reported job creation of 130,000 in January, exceeding expectations. This strengthened the U.S. dollar and supported global equity markets. However, it also reduced the likelihood of near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, thereby introducing some caution into market outlook.
In the United Kingdom, economic growth remained muted, with GDP expanding by only 0.1 percent in the final quarter of 2025. Weak investment and construction activity have raised concerns about the broader European growth trajectory.
French President Emmanuel Macron issued a strong warning regarding rising global instability, urging Europe to enhance its defense preparedness and economic self-reliance amid increasing geopolitical tensions involving major global powers.
Crude oil prices advanced by more than one percent, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and continued negotiations between the United States and Iran. Rising oil prices have implications for inflation and central bank policy across major economies.
Meanwhile, political instability in Iran deepened after the country’s President formally apologized for the violent suppression of protests. The situation remains fluid and may influence geopolitical strategies, sanctions policies, and global energy supply dynamics.
Final Market Perspective
The short-term market environment remains volatile, influenced by global economic data, geopolitical developments, and sector-specific challenges, particularly within the IT space. While today’s correction reflects caution, the broader structural trend has not yet turned decisively negative. Traders and investors should focus on price action, disciplined execution, and effective risk management rather than reacting emotionally to short-term fluctuations.
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Disclaimer
The views and analysis provided above are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or investment advice. Trading and investing in the stock market involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
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