Daily Technical, Intraday and Positional Trading Strategy
The Nifty 50 Futures market is entering the new week at an important inflection point. Over the last few sessions, price action has gradually shifted from balance to weakness, and the daily chart now reflects a clear change in short-term trend behaviour. This blog presents a structured technical analysis of Nifty 50 Futures for Monday, 12 January 2026, combining chart-based signals, real trading logic, and relevant fundamental developments to help traders make informed decisions.
This analysis is also a continuation of our previous outlook, where we highlighted early signs of distribution and advised traders to reduce aggressive long exposure. Today’s price action has validated that approach and offers valuable learning for both intraday and positional traders.
Continuity from the Previous Session: Why Yesterday’s Analysis Mattered
In our last market outlook, we discussed that Nifty 50 Futures was trading in a phase of balance rather than trend. Although the market had not broken down decisively at that stage, the structure was weakening, and higher levels were witnessing consistent supply. Traders were advised to focus on reaction-based trades instead of prediction-driven positions.
As today’s session unfolded, that framework proved useful. The index failed to reclaim its supply zones and continued to trade with a heavy undertone. The lack of strong follow-through on recovery attempts confirmed that indecision was resolving on the downside. Traders who followed yesterday’s guidance would have approached today’s weakness with preparation rather than surprise.
Daily Chart Structure: Trend Turning Bearish
From a technical standpoint, the daily chart of Nifty 50 Futures has now converted towards the bearish side. This shift is no longer just an early warning signal. The market has printed another lower high followed by a lower low, confirming that sellers are gaining control of the short-term trend.
This change in structure is important. It suggests that recent rallies are being used to exit long positions or initiate fresh shorts rather than to build new long exposure. Such behaviour typically appears during the early stages of a corrective phase.
Role of 100-Day DEMA: A Crucial Support Zone
Despite the bearish structure on the futures chart, the spot Nifty index has shown resilience near the 100-day DEMA. Prices found support around this level and recovered modestly towards the end of the session. This indicates that medium-term participants are still active and willing to defend key levels.
The presence of this support explains why the decline has remained controlled instead of turning into panic selling. For traders, this means that downside moves may be uneven, with intermittent pullbacks and intraday recoveries.
Intraday Trading Strategy for Monday, 12 January 2026
For intraday traders, the focus should remain on price behaviour around key zones rather than directional bias. The 25,850 to 25,900 region in Nifty Futures continues to act as an important supply area. Any recovery into this zone should be evaluated carefully.
If price shows rejection and fails to sustain above this area, it offers a practical sell-on-rise opportunity with clearly defined risk. However, traders should avoid chasing breakdowns aggressively, especially if the index stabilises near 25,700, as this area is influenced by the 100-day DEMA support on the spot chart.
Positional Trading View: Structure Under Pressure
From a positional perspective, the broader trend remains under pressure as long as Nifty 50 Futures trades below the 26,000 to 26,050 zone on a daily closing basis. This zone now acts as a ceiling for recovery attempts.
A sustained daily close below 25,700 would strengthen the corrective bias and open the path towards lower demand zones over the coming sessions. Until the market reclaims key resistance levels with conviction, positional long trades should remain selective and well protected.
Fundamental Factors Supporting the Technical Setup
The current technical structure is aligned with broader market conditions. Global equity markets remain sensitive to bond yield movements, which often pressure valuations near record highs. Domestically, the ongoing earnings season is increasing stock-specific volatility, leading to consolidation at the index level.
These factors support the view that the market is in a corrective or digestion phase rather than a strong trending environment.
Final Outlook: Focus on Structure, Not Prediction
In recent sessions, the market has moved from balance to weakness in a gradual and visible manner. Yesterday was about caution and preparation. Today’s chart has added confirmation by shifting the short-term trend towards the bearish side while still respecting medium-term support.
For Monday, traders should prioritise structure over opinion, manage risk actively, and allow price confirmation to guide decisions. In such market phases, discipline and consistency are not optional; they are the real edge.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. MarketShala does not assure guaranteed returns. Trading in derivatives involves risk, and proper risk management is essential.
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Disclaimer
The views and analysis provided above are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or investment advice. Trading and investing in the stock market involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
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