Understanding Today’s Nifty Movement and What to Expect Next
This blog discusses Tuesday, 03 February 2026, price action in Nifty Futures and Nifty Spot, and outlines a structured trading approach for Wednesday, 04 February 2026, based purely on technical analysis, price behaviour, and relevant global developments. The intention is to help traders and investors understand market psychology, not to provide any form of guaranteed returns.
Nifty Futures Intraday Analysis – Why Today Was a “No Trade Day”
In intraday trading, there are certain days when the best trade is actually not trading at all. These sessions are commonly referred to as “No Trade Days”, especially for traders who follow predefined, level-based trading systems. Tuesday fell squarely into this category.
When we analyse the 5-minute chart of Nifty Futures, the most striking feature of the session was the historic gap-up opening of nearly 1,073 points. Such an opening is extremely rare and typically occurs once in many years. This magnitude of a gap-up is beyond the scope of conventional technical projections and cannot be factored into routine intraday planning.
Due to this extraordinary opening, all previously defined intraday reference levels became irrelevant from a probability perspective. The positive trigger behind this move was the strong sentiment generated by the India–U.S. trade agreement, which created an aggressive bullish bias even before the market opened.
However, once the market opened at such elevated levels, both trading directions carried poor risk-reward dynamics. Initiating a long trade after a massive gap-up exposed traders to sharp profit booking risk, while initiating a short trade meant positioning against overwhelming bullish sentiment. In both cases, the trades would have been speculative rather than probability-driven.
After the first five-minute candle, Nifty Futures spent the entire trading session consolidating within a narrow range of approximately 227 points. This type of price behaviour clearly indicated indecision and balance between buyers and sellers. Under such conditions, executing intraday trades based on predefined strategies would not have aligned with disciplined trading principles.
Broader Market Perspective – What Today’s Session Signified
From a broader market standpoint, Tuesday’s session turned out to be a rewarding day for patient investors and long-term wealth creators. At the same time, traders who were holding positional short positions were caught on the wrong side of the move and faced sharp mark-to-market losses.
Nifty Spot opened at 26,308, which was more than 1,200 points above the previous close of 25,088. This opening itself qualifies as a historic gap-up in Indian market context. As expected after such a sharp opening, immediate profit booking emerged during early trade.
Despite the volatility, Nifty Spot managed to close at 25,727, ending the session with a strong gain of approximately 2.55 percent. Importantly, buying interest was not limited to frontline indices. The broader market showed renewed strength, with mid-cap and small-cap stocks witnessing strong buying interest after a prolonged corrective phase.
From a technical viewpoint, this session marked a significant shift in market structure. Nifty Spot, which was trading below all major moving averages until the previous session, closed decisively above the 20, 50, 100, and 200 period DEMA. This single session altered the short-term sentiment from bearish or neutral to clearly bullish.
Another important observation is the behaviour of moving averages on the daily chart. Until recently, these averages were sloping downward, indicating weakness. After Tuesday’s move, their direction has started turning upward, suggesting improving trend strength. While the next two to three sessions will provide further confirmation, the immediate technical bias has improved meaningfully.
Nifty Futures Trading Plan for Wednesday, 04 February 2026
Given the positive handover from Tuesday’s session, it is important to approach Wednesday’s trade with a clear plan and strict risk management. The strategy below is purely level-based and should only be executed if price action confirms the conditions.
Long Trade Scenario
If Nifty Futures trades convincingly above 25,908, it will indicate continuation of bullish momentum. In this case, a long position may be considered with a stop loss of 50 points and an upside target of 100 points. In this structure, the immediate resistance zone to watch will be around 26,200, where some supply or profit booking may emerge.
Short Trade Scenario
If Nifty Futures trades convincingly below 25,724, it would suggest short-term weakness or extended profit booking. Under this scenario, a short position may be considered with a stop loss of 50 points and a minimum downside target of 100 points.
On the downside, the first support is expected near 25,540. If this level fails to hold, the next major support zone lies much lower near 25,079, which could act as a stronger demand area.
Traders should avoid anticipatory trades and wait for confirmation, as volatility may remain elevated after such a large gap-up session.
Key Geopolitical and Economic Developments from the Last 24 Hours
Global and domestic developments over the last 24 hours played a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and risk appetite.
India and the United States finalized a landmark trade agreement aimed at strengthening bilateral economic ties. Under this agreement, U.S. tariffs on Indian goods have been reduced significantly, while India has committed to increasing imports of key American products such as energy resources, defence equipment, aircraft, and pharmaceuticals. This deal is widely seen as a step toward reducing global trade friction and improving long-term economic visibility.
Following the announcement, Indian financial markets reacted sharply. The Indian rupee recorded its strongest single-day gain in more than seven years, reflecting improved investor confidence and expectations of higher capital inflows.
India’s Economic Affairs Secretary also commented that the trade agreement has helped reduce global economic uncertainty, which is supportive for emerging markets like India from both fiscal and investment perspectives.
On the domestic front, recent official data indicated that Bihar’s economy grew at nearly 13 percent, well above the national average. This highlights improving regional economic performance and signals potential shifts in future investment and policy focus.
Globally, equity markets remained strong, with major European indices touching record highs. At the same time, gold prices witnessed their strongest single-day rise since 2008, suggesting selective risk-off positioning by global investors amid geopolitical realignments.
Closing View
Tuesday’s session stands out as a rare, sentiment-driven gap-up where discipline was more important than activity. From a structural perspective, Nifty has repaired significant technical damage, and the broader bias has shifted in favour of bulls. However, intraday traders must continue to respect levels, confirmation, and risk management, especially after such abnormal price behaviour.
Let the market reveal its intent, and participate only when probability aligns with price action. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market trading involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
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Disclaimer
The views and analysis provided above are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or investment advice. Trading and investing in the stock market involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
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