Market Overview
After several sessions of uncertainty and selling pressure, the Indian stock market finally displayed signs of strength as bulls regained partial control. The Nifty 50 Future began the new series with a firm gap-up opening, clearly reflecting an improvement in short-term market sentiment. Such a start indicated that aggressive selling had paused, at least temporarily, prompting intraday traders to reassess their positioning.
Throughout the trading session, Nifty Future remained active and volatile, trading within a wide intraday range of nearly 186 points. This expansion in range highlighted strong participation from both buyers and sellers. In the earlier analysis, weakness was expected below the 25079 level; however, due to the sharp gap-up opening near 25445, that level lost immediate relevance. In such conditions, chasing prices at the open increases risk, while waiting for price to approach key technical levels remains the more disciplined approach.
Price Action and Technical Structure
As the session progressed, Nifty Future gradually tested the 25379 zone. This level acted as an important intraday support, where buying interest emerged and price showed clear resilience. From this area, the index moved higher by more than 100 points, reinforcing the importance of trading based on predefined levels rather than emotional reactions.
On the daily chart, the technical structure has started to improve. The formation of higher highs and higher lows suggests strengthening short-term momentum. However, despite two consecutive bullish sessions, the broader trend on higher timeframes has not yet confirmed a full reversal. The market is still in a recovery phase, and sustained strength will be required to establish a clear bullish trend.
On the Nifty spot chart, the 200-day exponential moving average has been protected for the second consecutive day. This is a critical observation, as the 200-day EMA is widely followed as a long-term trend indicator. The sharp sell-off witnessed on 23 January has now been largely recovered, but the index is approaching an important resistance zone that will determine the next directional move.
Volatility and Market Conditions
The volatility index has cooled off compared to previous sessions. A moderating volatility environment supports structured intraday trading, allowing traders to focus on level-based setups rather than reacting to sudden, erratic price movements.
Key Levels to Watch on Thursday
For the trading session on Thursday, 29 January 2026, certain price levels will play a decisive role in determining intraday direction.
The 25490 zone continues to act as a key bullish trigger. If Nifty Future sustains above this level, the immediate resistance to watch will be near 25545. A decisive move above this resistance may attract fresh buying interest and could push the index towards the 25650 to 25700 range on an intraday basis.
On the downside, 25379 remains an important support. Sustained trade below this level would indicate weakening momentum. In such a scenario, Nifty Future may move towards 25298 initially. If this level breaks decisively, selling pressure could extend further, with 25080 emerging as the next significant support zone.
Given the current short-term positive bias, short trades should be attempted only with clear confirmation and strict risk management.
Global and Macro Factors Impacting Nifty
Global and macroeconomic developments continue to influence overall market sentiment. Gold prices have surged to record highs above 5,200 dollars per ounce, reflecting strong safe-haven demand amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Historically, such strength in gold often signals a risk-off undertone, which equity traders should remain cautious about during sharp rallies.
On the macro front, the signing of the long-awaited India–European Union Free Trade Agreement has provided a positive structural backdrop for Indian markets. The agreement is expected to enhance export prospects, particularly in engineering and manufacturing sectors, where exports to the EU are projected to grow significantly over the next two years. The gems and jewellery sector is also expected to benefit from improved competitiveness and better market access. While these factors are more relevant from a medium- to long-term perspective, they contribute positively to overall market confidence.
One risk that remains is the weakening Indian rupee against the US dollar, which raises concerns about continued foreign institutional investor selling. However, the cooling volatility environment offers some comfort for disciplined intraday traders.
Conclusion: Nifty 50 Future Intraday Outlook
The intraday outlook for Nifty 50 Future remains cautiously positive. The market has shown encouraging signs of strength, but confirmation of a broader trend reversal is still awaited. Sustained trade above the 25490 to 25545 zone will be crucial for further upside, while a breakdown below 25379 could alter the intraday structure.
Traders are advised to stay disciplined, avoid chasing gap-up moves, respect key technical levels, and manage risk carefully while navigating current market conditions.
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Disclaimer
The views and analysis provided above are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or investment advice. Trading and investing in the stock market involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
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