Nifty 50 Daily Technical Outlook for Monday, 29 December 2025: Real Trade Strategies with Risk Control
As we enter the final trading week of 2025, the Nifty 50 index is standing at a critical crossroads. After delivering a strong uptrend over the past few months, the index has now shifted into a phase of consolidation near the psychological 26,000 mark. This phase is neither a sign of weakness nor a confirmation of fresh strength — it is a pause that demands patience and clarity from traders.
For short-term traders and positional participants alike, this is the kind of market where planning matters more than prediction. Let us decode the daily chart and understand how one can approach Monday, 29 December 2025, with a practical and disciplined trading mindset.
Understanding the Current Market Structure
On the daily timeframe, Nifty continues to respect its broader bullish structure. The index is trading above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, which clearly indicates that the medium- to long-term trend remains intact.
However, price action over the last few sessions tells a different short-term story. Nifty is oscillating around the 20-day EMA, suggesting indecision. Buyers are not aggressive at higher levels, and sellers are also hesitant to push the index down sharply. This results in a narrow trading range — a classic setup before a directional move.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around the neutral zone near 52–53. This confirms that momentum is balanced. There is no overbought pressure forcing a sell-off, and there is no oversold condition demanding aggressive buying. In such conditions, breakouts and breakdowns become more meaningful than anticipatory trades.
Key Levels That Matter for Monday’s Trade
For Monday’s session, traders must focus on price behavior around a few well-defined zones.
On the downside, the 25,950–25,900 area is acting as immediate support. This zone has repeatedly absorbed selling pressure in recent sessions. A sustained break below this level would indicate that short-term buyers are losing control.
Below this, the 25,750–25,700 region emerges as a much stronger structural support. If Nifty slips into this zone, the market sentiment would turn cautious, even though the broader trend may still survive.
On the upside, 26,120–26,150 is the first resistance band. This is where supply has consistently emerged. A clean move above this zone would signal that bulls are willing to pay higher prices again.
The real confirmation of strength comes only above 26,250. A daily close beyond this level would open the door for a continuation move toward 26,350–26,400.
Practical Buy Strategy: When Strength Confirms
For traders looking to go long, patience is crucial. The preferred strategy is not to buy blindly near 26,000 but to wait for confirmation.
If Nifty moves above 26,120 and sustains above it, this indicates a shift in short-term sentiment. Such a move suggests that sellers at resistance have been absorbed.
In this case, long positions can be considered with a protective stop loss placed near 25,950. This stop aligns with the 20-day EMA and recent swing lows, providing logical risk control.
Upside targets for this trade lie near 26,250 initially, followed by 26,350–26,400 if momentum continues. Traders should consider partial profit booking at the first target to reduce emotional pressure.
This trade works because it respects both trend direction and confirmation logic.
Practical Sell Strategy: Only If Support Breaks
Selling Nifty should not be the first instinct in a market that is structurally bullish. However, short-term opportunities can arise if key support fails.
If Nifty breaks below 25,900 and holds below it, it indicates that short-term buyers have stepped aside. In such a scenario, a tactical short trade can be attempted.
The stop loss for this setup should be placed near 26,080, above recent consolidation highs. This ensures that the trade exits quickly if the breakdown turns out to be false.
Downside targets for this move lie near 25,750 initially, followed by 25,620. These are logical zones where buyers may attempt to re-enter.
This is a counter-trend trade and should be executed with smaller position sizes and strict discipline.
Risk Management: The Difference Between Trading and Gambling
Markets like the current one punish impatience. The biggest mistake traders make during consolidation is overtrading.
The correct approach is simple:
Trade only when price confirms your view.
Keep stop losses non-negotiable.
Avoid emotional entries inside the range.
In reality, not trading is also a trading decision. Waiting for clarity preserves capital, and capital preservation is what allows traders to survive long enough to catch big moves.
Fundamental Developments Supporting the Chart
From a fundamental perspective, the Indian market remains reasonably supported.
Domestic macro indicators continue to show resilience. Manufacturing and services activity remain stable, helping corporate earnings visibility. Inflation pressures have eased compared to earlier in the year, allowing the RBI to maintain a balanced stance rather than an aggressive tightening bias.
Globally, markets are witnessing rotation rather than panic. U.S. indices are consolidating after strong rallies, crude oil prices remain range-bound, and the dollar has cooled slightly. These factors reduce the risk of sudden external shocks for Indian equities.
All these elements suggest that while Nifty may not sprint higher immediately, sharp breakdowns are also unlikely without a clear trigger.
Final Trading Outlook for Monday
For Monday, 29 December 2025, Nifty is expected to remain range-bound unless a decisive breakout or breakdown occurs.
Traders should align themselves with price, not opinions. Strength above resistance should be respected, and weakness below support should be acknowledged without hesitation.
This is not a market for emotional trading. It is a market for structured plans, controlled risk, and patient execution.
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Disclaimer
The views and analysis provided above are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or investment advice. Trading and investing in the stock market involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
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