Bitcoin Weekly Analysis: Is This Correction a Trap or the Beginning of a Deeper Fall?
Current Price: $102,202
Timeframe: Weekly (as of 9th November 2025)
Change: –7.53% on weekly basis
🧭 Market Context – Where Bitcoin Stands Now
After an impressive bull run that pushed Bitcoin close to its all-time highs of around $124,000, the crypto king is now showing signs of fatigue. The weekly chart reveals a strong rejection from higher levels and a consistent inability to hold above the $110,000–$112,000 mark.
Bitcoin has broken below its 20-week EMA (around $110,500) for the first time in several months — a move that often signals a pause or short-term reversal in an ongoing bull cycle. This breakdown has turned short-term sentiment cautious, even though the long-term uptrend remains intact.
📊 Technical Structure – What the Chart is Whispering
A closer look at the chart shows a clear support-resistance rotation happening. Levels that once acted as support are now resisting new buying attempts.
- Immediate Resistance: $110,000–$112,000 (previous support now resistance)
- Major Resistance: $123,700 (previous swing high)
- Immediate Support: $100,000 (psychological level)
- Major Support: $90,000–$92,000 zone (previous base and near 50-week EMA)
RSI (14): Currently near 45, indicating weakening bullish momentum and a possible drift toward the neutral-to-bearish zone.
Volume Action: Selling volumes have picked up significantly — suggesting profit-booking and panic exits from late entrants. The price action has also formed what looks like a short-term distribution pattern on the weekly timeframe — a warning that bulls are losing their grip, at least for now.
⚙️ Fundamental Pulse – Macro & On-Chain View
From a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin’s weakness is in line with the broader risk-off sentiment across global markets. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone regarding interest rates, and concerns over slower global liquidity inflows, are weighing on speculative assets like cryptocurrencies.
However, underneath this volatility lies a stronger long-term picture:
- On-chain data shows that large holders (whales) are still accumulating below $100K.
- Hash rate remains robust — signaling network strength and miner confidence.
- Institutional interest continues through ETF inflows and custody partnerships, though short-term traders are clearly taking profits after the sharp rally since mid-2024.
In short, fundamentals support long-term optimism, but technical correction is unavoidable after such a steep run.
🧩 Trading Strategy – How to Approach the Market Practically
Here’s how a practical trader should navigate this setup in the coming week:
1. For Short-Term Traders (Next 1–2 Weeks)
- Bias: Mildly bearish to range-bound
- Strategy:
Look for short opportunities on any pullback towards $104,000–$106,000.- Sell Zone: $104,000–$106,000
- Target 1: $98,000
- Target 2: $92,000
- Stop Loss: $111,500 (on weekly closing basis)
This trade setup favors those who understand that corrections can be sharp and fast in Bitcoin, often giving 7–10% moves within days.
2. For Swing/Positional Traders (2–6 Weeks)
- Bias: Wait-and-watch with bullish intent
- Strategy:
If Bitcoin takes support near $90,000–$92,000 and forms a strong reversal candle on the weekly chart, that could offer an ideal entry for the next leg of the bull run.- Buy Zone: $90,000–$95,000
- Target 1: $110,000
- Target 2: $120,000–$124,000
- Stop Loss: $87,000 (on weekly closing basis)
This trade approach allows investors to accumulate at key supports instead of chasing momentum at the top — a strategy that separates professional traders from emotional retail participants.
3. For Long-Term Investors
For those who believe in Bitcoin’s long-term story, every dip near $90,000 or below is an opportunity to build position gradually. The 200-week EMA near $65,000 provides a rock-solid foundation for accumulation, ensuring long-term safety in case of an extended correction.
Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) between $85,000–$100,000 could be an ideal long-term accumulation range for investors eyeing the next big move beyond $150,000 over the next 12–18 months.
🔎 Key Learning for Traders
- Never chase green candles. Wait for pullbacks and confirm the strength of support zones before entering.
- Respect weekly EMAs. When the 20-week EMA breaks, it often signals a temporary top or mid-cycle correction.
- Volume is a truth-teller. Rising sell volume at resistance means profit booking — time to be cautious, not greedy.
- Trade the structure, not emotions. Bitcoin rewards disciplined traders who focus on levels and confirmations, not news or social media hype.
🧠 Conclusion – The Road Ahead
Bitcoin’s weekly chart currently shows a healthy correction in an overall bullish structure. The fall from $123,000 to $102,000 should not be viewed as the end of the bull market, but as a phase of price digestion before the next big rally.
For now, traders should approach with caution and patience. The $100,000–$90,000 zone will act as the deciding battleground between bulls and bears. A weekly close below $90,000 could extend weakness, while a close above $111,000 will likely reignite momentum toward new highs.
In summary — the next few weeks in Bitcoin will separate disciplined traders from emotional ones. Stay patient, use clear levels, and let the chart do the talking.
Disclaimer
The views and analysis provided above are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or investment advice. Trading and investing in the stock market involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
***********
|| ॐ नमः शिवाय ||